Saturday, October 1, 2011

The nine month review for 2011, part 2:
Birth predictions

The supermarket rags love to say some celebrity is pregnant. Who cares if it's actually true?

I care. That's the general point of this blog, to keep track of the stuff that can be verified.

Let's go back six to nine months, January, February and March of 2011. If a gossip rag said a woman was pregnant back then, she should either have had the baby by now or be so far along that she can't deny it.

Here are the true tabloid pregnancy announcements from those months. Some of them were mentioned several times.

Kate Hudson (x 5)
Mariah Carey (x 4)
Victoria Beckham
Natalie Portman (x 2)
Kim Zolciak

Here are the false tabloid pregnancy announcements from the same time period.

Khloe Kardashian (x 2)
Kourtney Kardashian
Angelina Jolie
Queen Latifah
Carrie Underwood
Katie Holmes
Kendra Wilkinson
Jennifer Aniston
Kelly Preston
The bearer of Todd Palin's love child

If we ignore how many times each pregnancy was mentioned and instead focus on the number of women who were said to be pregnant, five of them were and ten of them weren't. That's a batting average of .333, which is actually much better than any other three month period in the past two years.

Still, this isn't as tough as hitting a pitched baseball. The press should be able to do better than one correct story out of three when it comes to whether a woman is pregnant or not.

Tomorrow: the popular celebrities and the naughty vs. nice numbers.

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